Yellen model proves incredible inflation predictor
This is a follow up to the ‘Yellen model’ blog written in April 2021:
US inflation to overshoot 2% consensus-view outlook to beyond 3

This is a follow up to the ‘Yellen model’ blog written in April 2021:
US inflation to overshoot 2% consensus-view outlook to beyond 3

See attached research note, US Commercial Property Accidents Ahead, written by my colleague, Philip Suttle (brief bio below): Institute of International Finance, Chief Economist Barclays Investment Bank, Global Head of Emerging Market Research Federal Reserve Bank of New York The World Bank, Director, Development Finance Group JP Morgan, Economist Bank of England, Economist Brief snapshot…
The restraint to the DM housing sector does not look as though it will come from financial policy (or a financial accident), but from (further) rising costs and prices eventually undermining affordability. The most that central banks are generally doing is ‘monitoring’ the situation. The much-asked question is whether (and when) housing is riding for…
EXPERIENCE AND THE HUMAN DIMENSION OF RISK One could reasonably ask why so much emphasis is placed on experience in risk estimation, modeling and management. While experience benefits people in any line of work, there is a good reason why the introduction of new technology, new sets of regulatory rules, or shinier forms of process…
The following is an op-ed that I drafted last year when the Government was facing a ‘crisis’. Like a case study in business school, the names and background could be easily adapted to any current crisis. My ‘kindergarten’ was led by top risk executives in professional development programs that nurtured the best within CROs. Once…
For in-depth analysis, see attached paper by Phil Suttle.
A huge struggle for banks with this ongoing pandemic. As you well know, statistical models are only good as the history: with sharp change (esp. unemployment rate), there is a disconnect in the model. So how does this bode for banks? Management overlay and qualitative adjustment abound. Colleagues at banks of various sizes across the…
© 2026 by JYKNG CONSULTING